Extreme Events

in the Radiocarbon Record

Slides available at benjaminpope.github.io/talks/uqpain/uqpain.html

Miyake Events

774-775 AD

Miyake Figure

Miyake et al, 2012

Anglo-Saxon Chronicle:

774 AD

“This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset; the Mercians and the men of Kent fought at Otford; and wonderful serpents were seen in the land of the South-Saxons.”

Allen, 2012

Also in 993-994 AD

Miyake Figure

Miyake et al, 2013

Comparison

Miyake Figure

Miyake et al, 2013

5480 BC

Miyake Figure

Miyake et al, 2017

Ancient Egypt

Uncertain chronology

Dee Figure

Dee et al., 2013

Solved by Miyake events?

Dee Figure

Dee et al., 2016A

Finding Further Events

Dee Figure

Dee and Pope, 2016b

Changbaishan Eruption

Dated to 946 CE from a buried tree showing the 775 event

Oppenheimer Figure

Oppenheimer et al., 2017

Rules out previous hypothesis that it contributed to collapse of the Bohai Kingdom (Manchuria/Korea) in 926 CE

Por-Bajin

Uyghur island 'fortress' in Siberia

Dated to 777 CE by tree rings

Kuitems et al, 2020

Resolves mystery!

Ruler Tengri Bögü Khan converted to Manichaeism and built this monastery after 777

... but was overthrown and Manichaeism abandoned in 779.

Supernovae?

No!

Dee Figure

Dee, Pope et al., 2016a

The Sun

Carrington Event

Aurora

F.E. Church, "Aurora Borealis", 1865.

Superflares in Kepler

Maehara Figure

Maehara et al., 2012

Superflares vs. the Sun

Shibata Figure

Shibata et al., 2013

Atmospheric yields

Mekhaldi Figure 1

Mekhaldi et al., 2015

774-5 AD Isotopes

Mekhaldi Figure 2

Mekhaldi et al., 2015

993-4 AD Isotopes

Mekhaldi Figure 3

Mekhaldi et al., 2015

Estimated Flux

Mekhaldi Figure 5

Mekhaldi et al., 2015

Cause still unknown!

Magnetars?

Wang et al, 2019

Connection to fast radio bursts?

magnetar burst bochenek

Bochenek et al, 2020

Open-Source Software

Working with Utkarsh Sharma & Qingyuan Zhang

sharmallama.github.io/ticktack

posterior samples
corner plot

The Future

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